Statewide Trial-Heat Polls and the 2000 Presidential Election: A Forecast Model.” Social Science Quarterly

Objective. We provide an examination and update of a presidential election forecasting model that we have previously developed to predict state-level presidential election outcomes. Method. Our model consists of September state-wide trial-heat polls in 1992, 1996, and 2000 along with a prior vote variable. We use this model to generate predictions for both state-level and national-level outcomes. Results. Although our model generated reasonably accurate point estimates of state-level outcomes in 2000, it still incorrectly predicted a Gore victory in 2000. Conclusions. We discuss possible explanations for the 2000 misprediction and present updated coefficients to be used to generate a forecast for the 2004 election. ‘‘Closest election in 40 years’ ’ was the mantra recited time and again by pundits observing the 2000 presidential election campaign. Little did they know that the extremely close outcomes in a number of states, coupled with the Florida recount controversy, would prove that prophecy to be quite true indeed. With Al Gore garnering a popular vote margin of roughly one-hal